The Black Swan
Even the safest options fail
This is why I like 
Nassim Taleb
's idea of not minimizing risk but rather minimizing downside. As in designing for and predicting what is the worse possible effect if the wrong were to happen. 

In 
The Black Swan
he basically argues that you can never predict when such unpredictable events can happen. It's better to figure out what type of downsides you're vulnerable and prepare for that.


Abraham Kim